As a bullish exponential moving average (EMA) breakout drove momentum indicators to their highest levels since December, the bitcoin market saw a notable rise last week. Still, traders are wary and wonder if this increase is the beginning of a long-term optimistic cycle or just a bear market recovery. Still lingering over the market’s direction is macroeconomic uncertainty.
Ethereum and Bitcoin React to U.S. GDP Decline
This morning’s crucial economic release revealed that the United States’ GDP for the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.3% year over year. Particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, this surprising decline sparked swift reactions throughout the financial markets.
Former President Donald Trump blamed the downturn on what he referred to as the residual “Biden overhang,” therefore separating his tariff increases from the slowdown. Notwithstanding political spin, the study has generated questions about the future actions of the Federal Reserve. Will the Fed focus on boosting development or concentrate on inflation control?
The markets for cryptocurrencies responded fast. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced significant selling pressure as the American session began. Long positions totaling over $270 million were sold; BTC and ETH accounted for $115 million of that overall amount.
Bitcoin Struggles at $97K Resistance
The price behavior of Bitcoin presents a gripping narrative. Near the $97,000 level, Bitcoin has been repeatedly rejected; this strong resistance zone is marked by notable trading volume throughout the year. Based on daily charts from Binance, BTC appears to be stuck below this crucial level, despite past upward progress.
Sentiment swiftly swung from a 1-hour long-short ratio of 0.88. Rising to 1.275, the ratio suggests traders are positioned for a positive comeback. Still, the future seems unknown. Should BTC fail to surpass $97,000, a retreat towards its 21-day EMA, around $89,900, is likely, thereby increasing the likelihood of a collapse below $90,000.
Technical evidence backs up this careful approach. While the MACD histogram has been drifting lower for five straight days—indices of bullish momentum could be cooling—the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lately lingered at overbought levels.
Medium-Term Outlook: Bitcoin Still Holds Bullish Potential
Though there is present opposition, Bitcoin’s mid-term future looks bright. Typically indicating a long-term upward trend, a recent golden crossover between the 21-day EMA and the 200-day EMA. Similar trends have preceded major demonstrations, normally driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs within three to six months.
Should a pullback occur, long-term investors and traders may find an attractive purchase opportunity. A 30% to 40% gain is reasonable, given historical precedent and the current technical structure. This would put BTC’s price between $130,000 and $140,000 in the next few months.
